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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.25%?

YES means Above 4.25%

24h volume
663
5,324 lifetime
Open interest
2,260
+239 over 24h
Spread
5¢
0.38 × 7 at the touch
24h range
37¢ – 73¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
49%−2

A YES contract costs 58¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
51%

costs 47¢

YES bid / ask
53¢ / 58¢
NO bid / ask
42¢ / 47¢
24h low 37¢24h high 73¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢volSep 20, 1:02 AMSep 21, 12:08 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11072¢
  • ask3866¢
  • ask4065¢
  • ask17564¢
  • ask4963¢
  • ask7262¢
  • ask1761¢
  • ask758¢
spread5¢mid 56¢
  • bid0.3853¢
  • bid552¢
  • bid1750¢
  • bid1549¢
  • bid21648¢
  • bid10147¢
  • bid135¢
  • bid530¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T4.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago49¢6.45bought no
1h ago52¢1.23bought no
1h ago51¢2bought no
1h ago59¢7.64bought yes
1h ago62¢7.13bought yes
1h ago63¢47bought yes
1h ago59¢2bought yes
1h ago62¢14bought yes
1h ago55¢38bought no
1h ago56¢8.83bought no
1h ago56¢1.57bought no
1h ago56¢4.37bought no
1h ago56¢2bought no
1h ago56¢69bought no
2h ago70¢2.63bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.