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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 28mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 1.25%?

YES means Above 1.25%

24h volume
0
563 lifetime
Open interest
456
+0 over 7d
Spread
36¢
23 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 36¢

YES bid / ask
64¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 36¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
    spread–mid –
    • bid2364¢
    • bid20062¢
    • bid2659¢
    • bid2,46058¢
    • bid9,41044¢
    • bid7,02143¢
    • bid20031¢
    • bid2,02630¢
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 8, 2029 · 6:30 AM UTC
    floor
    1.25
    ticker
    KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T1.25
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 23 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    22d ago79¢5bought yes
    24d ago92¢10bought no
    24d ago92¢49bought no
    24d ago92¢336bought no
    1mo ago91¢37bought yes
    1mo ago87¢25bought yes
    1mo ago87¢7bought yes
    1mo ago87¢25bought no
    1mo ago87¢7bought no
    2mo ago87¢16bought yes
    2mo ago85¢2bought yes
    2mo ago85¢2bought yes
    2mo ago85¢2bought yes
    2mo ago85¢5bought yes
    2mo ago84¢2bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.