galdor.xyz
Admin
Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 28mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 3.75%?

YES means Above 3.75%

24h volume
0
61 lifetime
Open interest
36
+0 over 7d
Spread
25¢
13 × 2 at the touch
24h range
–
9 recent trades
Chance of YES
52%

A YES contract costs 70¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
48%

costs 55¢

YES bid / ask
45¢ / 70¢
NO bid / ask
30¢ / 55¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask263.0k99¢
  • ask25.9k95¢
  • ask6,07391¢
  • ask35490¢
  • ask4187¢
  • ask20071¢
  • ask270¢
spread25¢mid 57¢
  • bid1345¢
  • bid20021¢
  • bid46320¢
  • bid5612¢
  • bid8,67311¢
  • bid16.5k6¢
  • bid231.8k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
3.75
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T3.75
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 9 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
30d ago52¢3bought yes
2mo ago46¢13bought yes
2mo ago41¢2bought yes
2mo ago41¢2bought yes
2mo ago41¢2bought yes
2mo ago29¢2bought no
2mo ago27¢12bought yes
2mo ago29¢25bought no
2mo ago32¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.