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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 28mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 3.50%?

YES means Above 3.50%

24h volume
0
403 lifetime
Open interest
210
+0 over 24h
Spread
48¢
200 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
21 recent trades
Chance of YES
50%

A YES contract costs 71¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
50%

costs 77¢

YES bid / ask
23¢ / 71¢
NO bid / ask
29¢ / 77¢
Recent buying61% YES · 39% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 20, 9:20 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask190.9k99¢
  • ask24.2k97¢
  • ask2,50896¢
  • ask5,81394¢
  • ask25093¢
  • ask20072¢
  • ask10071¢
spread48¢mid 47¢
  • bid20023¢
  • bid4617¢
  • bid5915¢
  • bid6,68114¢
  • bid11.4k9¢
  • bid21.3k5¢
  • bid2,5304¢
  • bid238.5k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
3.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T3.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 21 trades, 61% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
26d ago50¢73bought yes
26d ago50¢56bought yes
27d ago57¢50bought no
27d ago57¢50bought no
27d ago57¢25bought no
30d ago58¢3bought yes
1mo ago59¢56bought yes
2mo ago48¢1bought no
2mo ago49¢4bought yes
2mo ago47¢3bought no
2mo ago48¢3bought no
2mo ago26¢2bought yes
2mo ago25¢1bought yes
2mo ago25¢3bought yes
2mo ago25¢9bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.