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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 28mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 5.75%?

YES means Above 5.75%

24h volume
0
281 lifetime
Open interest
98
+0 over 30d
Spread
34¢
0 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 100¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22.5k75¢
  • ask2,24873¢
  • ask10.7k63¢
  • ask8,66162¢
  • ask3,25050¢
  • ask4949¢
  • ask14735¢
  • ask10034¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 8, 2029 · 6:30 AM UTC
    floor
    5.75
    ticker
    KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T5.75
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 19 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1mo ago12¢26bought yes
    1mo ago11¢25bought no
    1mo ago11¢22bought no
    1mo ago11¢25bought no
    1mo ago11¢25bought no
    1mo ago12¢7bought yes
    1mo ago12¢25bought yes
    1mo ago12¢15bought yes
    1mo ago12¢50bought yes
    2mo ago11¢12bought no
    2mo ago9¢5bought no
    2mo ago16¢10bought no
    2mo ago17¢2bought no
    2mo ago16¢2bought yes
    2mo ago16¢25bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.