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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 40mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029 be above 1.25%?

YES means Above 1.25%

24h volume
0
444 lifetime
Open interest
294
+212 over 30d
Spread
18¢
10 × 103 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
88%

A YES contract costs 96¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
12%

costs 22¢

YES bid / ask
78¢ / 96¢
NO bid / ask
4¢ / 22¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢90¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask14198¢
  • ask20197¢
  • ask10396¢
spread18¢mid 87¢
  • bid1078¢
  • bid20055¢
  • bid4854¢
  • bid1,38553¢
  • bid2,41352¢
  • bid20042¢
  • bid8,73441¢
  • bid7,48739¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
1.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-30JAN01-T1.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
27d ago88¢10bought no
27d ago88¢50bought no
27d ago88¢50bought no
27d ago88¢25bought no
27d ago88¢0.01bought no
27d ago88¢71bought no
29d ago89¢27bought yes
1mo ago89¢25bought yes
1mo ago83¢35bought no
1mo ago82¢10bought yes
1mo ago82¢25bought yes
2mo ago93¢24bought yes
2mo ago78¢2bought no
2mo ago79¢3bought yes
2mo ago79¢3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.