galdor.xyz
Admin
Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 40mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029 be above 4.00%?

YES means Above 4.00%

24h volume
0
297 lifetime
Open interest
133
+124 over 90d
Spread
25¢
3 × 100 at the touch
24h range
23¢ – 50¢
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%

A YES contract costs 61¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask
36¢ / 61¢
NO bid / ask
39¢ / 64¢
24h low 23¢24h high 50¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢40¢50¢60¢volJul 30Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask24.4k94¢
  • ask2,87193¢
  • ask11.0k88¢
  • ask4687¢
  • ask3686¢
  • ask1385¢
  • ask20062¢
  • ask10061¢
spread25¢mid 49¢
  • bid336¢
  • bid10716¢
  • bid31715¢
  • bid6,68114¢
  • bid2,05710¢
  • bid11.4k9¢
  • bid21.3k5¢
  • bid238.5k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-30JAN01-T4.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
26d ago42¢92bought yes
26d ago49¢50bought no
26d ago49¢50bought no
29d ago50¢4bought yes
1mo ago45¢2bought yes
1mo ago45¢25bought yes
1mo ago37¢6bought no
1mo ago37¢25bought no
1mo ago38¢31bought yes
2mo ago36¢3bought no
2mo ago37¢1bought no
2mo ago37¢1bought no
2mo ago37¢3bought no
2mo ago28¢2bought yes
2mo ago23¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.