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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 64mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031 be above 4.75%?

YES means Above 4.75%

24h volume
0
189 lifetime
Open interest
44
+44 over 90d
Spread
48¢
31 × 25 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
37%

A YES contract costs 61¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
63%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 61¢
NO bid / ask
39¢ / 87¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volJul 30Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask18.5k89¢
  • ask6,72484¢
  • ask1183¢
  • ask1,97579¢
  • ask21778¢
  • ask4277¢
  • ask20062¢
  • ask2561¢
spread48¢mid 37¢
  • bid3113¢
  • bid20012¢
  • bid355¢
  • bid473¢
  • bid3,3302¢
  • bid44.0k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2032 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2032 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.75
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-32JAN01-T4.75
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25d ago37¢5bought no
1mo ago37¢25bought no
1mo ago38¢25bought yes
1mo ago31¢5bought yes
2mo ago36¢31bought yes
2mo ago36¢17bought yes
2mo ago36¢1bought yes
2mo ago30¢1bought yes
2mo ago36¢11bought no
2mo ago36¢10bought no
2mo ago36¢3bought no
2mo ago37¢24bought no
2mo ago37¢25bought no
2mo ago37¢3bought no
2mo ago37¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.