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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 89mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 5.00%?

YES means Above 5.00%

24h volume
0
247 lifetime
Open interest
81
+0 over 7d
Spread
29¢
8 × 33 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%

A YES contract costs 54¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 54¢
NO bid / ask
46¢ / 75¢
Recent buying35% YES · 65% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask19.9k86¢
  • ask1,65283¢
  • ask6,00380¢
  • ask1,98273¢
  • ask20072¢
  • ask5271¢
  • ask20055¢
  • ask3354¢
spread29¢mid 40¢
  • bid825¢
  • bid2005¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2034 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2034 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-34JAN01-T5.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 35% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
26d ago30¢50bought no
26d ago30¢50bought no
1mo ago31¢1bought yes
1mo ago31¢25bought yes
1mo ago30¢8bought no
1mo ago30¢8bought no
1mo ago30¢33bought no
1mo ago30¢1bought yes
1mo ago30¢25bought yes
1mo ago30¢15bought yes
1mo ago29¢1bought no
2mo ago30¢2bought yes
2mo ago17¢1bought yes
2mo ago17¢10bought no
2mo ago17¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.