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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 113mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 2.25%?

YES means Above 2.25%

24h volume
0
157 lifetime
Open interest
74
+70 over 90d
Spread
24¢
19 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
32 recent trades
Chance of YES
58%

A YES contract costs 82¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
42%

costs 42¢

YES bid / ask
58¢ / 82¢
NO bid / ask
18¢ / 42¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volJul 30Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30083¢
  • ask582¢
spread24¢mid 70¢
  • bid1958¢
  • bid24057¢
  • bid5129¢
  • bid20028¢
  • bid1,65127¢
  • bid1,50422¢
  • bid5,00120¢
  • bid16.6k14¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2036 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2036 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
2.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-36JAN01-T2.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 32 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago58¢5bought no
3d ago58¢5bought no
21d ago67¢5bought no
22d ago60¢1bought yes
22d ago60¢2bought yes
22d ago60¢2bought yes
22d ago57¢10bought no
1mo ago58¢34bought yes
1mo ago58¢25bought yes
1mo ago58¢5bought yes
1mo ago58¢5bought yes
1mo ago57¢13bought no
1mo ago57¢1bought no
1mo ago57¢0.2bought no
1mo ago57¢0.1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.