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KXFEDFUNDSYEAR·closes in 113mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 4.25%?

YES means Above 4.25%

24h volume
0
105 lifetime
Open interest
92
+65 over 30d
Spread
49¢
9 × 200 at the touch
24h range
40¢ – 40¢
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%

A YES contract costs 61¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 61¢
NO bid / ask
39¢ / 88¢
24h low 40¢24h high 40¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2036 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2036 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-36JAN01-T4.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
27d ago40¢37bought yes
27d ago40¢28bought yes
2mo ago37¢9bought yes
2mo ago36¢4bought yes
2mo ago32¢4bought yes
2mo ago30¢2bought yes
2mo ago30¢5bought yes
2mo ago30¢2bought yes
2mo ago30¢5bought yes
2mo ago32¢5bought yes
2mo ago30¢2bought no
2mo ago40¢2bought no
2mo ago27¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.