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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 125mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 4.50%?

YES means Above 4.50%

24h volume
0
139 lifetime
Open interest
17
Spread
33¢
2 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%

A YES contract costs 49¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 49¢
NO bid / ask
51¢ / 84¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.4k91¢
  • ask7,22087¢
  • ask2,09183¢
  • ask40082¢
  • ask20075¢
  • ask20065¢
  • ask164¢
  • ask149¢
spread33¢mid 33¢
  • bid216¢
  • bid20015¢
  • bid376¢
  • bid474¢
  • bid4,6553¢
  • bid1,9942¢
  • bid60.5k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2037 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2037 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-37JAN01-T4.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago33¢9bought yes
14d ago33¢4bought yes
14d ago34¢10bought yes
14d ago34¢1bought no
22d ago41¢2bought yes
22d ago40¢1bought yes
1mo ago44¢1bought no
1mo ago41¢25bought yes
1mo ago41¢15bought yes
1mo ago40¢15bought no
1mo ago40¢25bought no
1mo ago40¢1bought no
2mo ago40¢13bought no
2mo ago41¢4bought yes
2mo ago41¢9bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.