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French presidential election: who will advance?·closes in 19mo

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

YES means Jean-Luc Mélenchon

24h volume
0
748 lifetime
Open interest
706
+0 over 7d
Spread
4¢
1 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
30 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 70¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask1,71189¢
  • ask20088¢
  • ask50034¢
spread4¢mid 32¢
  • bid130¢
  • bid50029¢
  • bid50026¢
  • bid2493¢
  • bid5,0002¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 10 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 17, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 17, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFRPRESADVANCE-26APR18-JMEL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 30 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago36¢68bought yes
12d ago35¢20bought yes
13d ago35¢36bought yes
13d ago35¢42bought yes
13d ago34¢30bought yes
13d ago34¢10bought yes
15d ago31¢15bought no
15d ago30¢5bought no
19d ago36¢3bought yes
19d ago36¢4bought yes
19d ago35¢6bought yes
19d ago34¢135bought yes
20d ago34¢10bought yes
22d ago36¢30bought yes
22d ago36¢21bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.