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PRC FTA·closes in 28mo

Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
152
69.1k lifetime
Open interest
12.0k
+234 over 90d
Spread
6¢
15 × 500 at the touch
24h range
15¢ – 20¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%−34

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 85¢
24h low 15¢24h high 20¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6155¢
  • ask3554¢
  • ask5553¢
  • ask4552¢
  • ask9351¢
  • ask4650¢
  • ask10045¢
  • ask50021¢
spread6¢mid 18¢
  • bid1515¢
  • bid3,48514¢
  • bid1,06113¢
  • bid1,42712¢
  • bid2110¢
  • bid5126¢
  • bid755¢
  • bid275¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a free trade agreement with China has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 10, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFTAPRC-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago15¢76bought no
6h ago20¢76bought yes
1d ago18¢5bought yes
1d ago49¢2bought yes
4d ago15¢21bought no
6d ago15¢0.82bought no
6d ago15¢5bought no
6d ago20¢5bought yes
6d ago20¢5.73bought yes
6d ago21¢57bought yes
12d ago15¢5.73bought no
13d ago19¢5.25bought yes
13d ago18¢10bought yes
13d ago20¢4.75bought yes
15d ago15¢5.25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.