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KXG7LEADEROUT·closes in 223mo

Will Chancellor of Germany be the first to leave office?

YES means Friedrich Merz

24h volume
217
8,559 lifetime
Open interest
5,332
+1,459 over 7d
Spread
6¢
32 × 20 at the touch
24h range
8¢ – 43¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%−35

A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 74¢

YES bid / ask
26¢ / 32¢
NO bid / ask
68¢ / 74¢
24h low 8¢24h high 43¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the individual holding the title of Chancellor of Germany at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXG7LEADEROUT-26JUL20-FMER
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 89¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago26¢18bought no
6h ago27¢20bought no
6h ago27¢10bought no
6h ago8¢14bought no
6h ago18¢100bought no
6h ago26¢5bought no
7h ago39¢25bought yes
7h ago38¢25bought yes
4d ago42¢1bought yes
4d ago43¢10bought yes
4d ago40¢1bought yes
4d ago41¢5bought yes
4d ago43¢5.45bought yes
5d ago30¢636bought yes
6d ago30¢3.17bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.