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Next G7 leader out·closes in 223mo

Will Prime Minister of Italy be the first to leave office?

YES means Giorgia Meloni

24h volume
0
1,610 lifetime
Open interest
932
Spread
4¢
0 × 71 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 100¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3036¢
  • ask4435¢
  • ask2046¢
  • ask714¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the individual holding the title of Prime Minister of Italy at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 20 · 7:30 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXG7LEADEROUT-26JUL20-GMEL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 89¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 26 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1d ago4¢200bought yes
    1d ago3¢200bought yes
    1d ago3¢128bought yes
    1d ago4¢232bought yes
    1d ago1¢1bought yes
    1d ago1¢5bought yes
    2mo ago3¢4.99bought no
    2mo ago3¢44bought no
    2mo ago3¢302bought no
    2mo ago3¢56bought no
    2mo ago3¢44bought no
    2mo ago3¢6bought no
    2mo ago3¢2bought no
    2mo ago3¢4bought no
    2mo ago3¢15bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.