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GDP share manufacturing·closes in 34mo

Will Trump bring back manufacturing?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
0
26.5k lifetime
Open interest
11.9k
+657 over 90d
Spread
13¢
9.12 × 0.88 at the touch
24h range
12¢ – 25¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 88¢
24h low 12¢24h high 25¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢30¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask82460¢
  • ask2655¢
  • ask8455¢
  • ask13355¢
  • ask453¢
  • ask0.9746¢
  • ask6925¢
  • ask0.8825¢
spread13¢mid 19¢
  • bid9.1212¢
  • bid58012¢
  • bid511¢
  • bid5.887¢
  • bid3.225¢
  • bid514¢
  • bid284¢
  • bid514¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the value added by Manufacturing to GDP in Q4 2028 is at least 13.1% (the value it was in Q1 2005), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 5, 2025 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jun 30, 2029 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jun 30, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
13.1
ticker
KXGDPSHAREMANU-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump bring back manufacturing?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago17¢0.01bought no
1d ago12¢0.88bought no
1d ago16¢5bought no
1d ago25¢5.89bought yes
1d ago25¢1.18bought yes
6d ago17¢1.18bought no
6d ago24¢0.01bought yes
6d ago17¢0.01bought no
8d ago24¢394bought yes
9d ago24¢54bought yes
9d ago22¢1bought yes
9d ago23¢5bought yes
9d ago16¢4.75bought no
9d ago18¢1bought no
9d ago14¢0.13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.