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US GDP peak ·closes in 29mo

Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028?

YES means Above 5%

24h volume
7.99
179.4k lifetime
Open interest
30.4k
+440 over 7d
Spread
5¢
5 × 4 at the touch
24h range
23¢ – 38¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%+12

A YES contract costs 36¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 69¢

YES bid / ask
31¢ / 36¢
NO bid / ask
64¢ / 69¢
24h low 23¢24h high 38¢
Recent buying92% YES · 8% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00067¢
  • ask2,00056¢
  • ask65651¢
  • ask27251¢
  • ask98038¢
  • ask1638¢
  • ask536¢
  • ask436¢
spread5¢mid 33¢
  • bid531¢
  • bid2129¢
  • bid529¢
  • bid3625¢
  • bid3625¢
  • bid3625¢
  • bid8224¢
  • bid2524¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 has GDP growth of above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 18, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 26, 2029 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 26, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXGDPUSMAX-28-5
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will there be a Trump economic boom?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago35¢2.73bought yes
4h ago30¢4.26bought no
22h ago27¢1bought no
1d ago23¢2.56bought no
1d ago23¢3.68bought no
1d ago38¢219bought yes
1d ago38¢70bought yes
1d ago38¢5.13bought yes
1d ago23¢4.53bought no
1d ago23¢0.6bought no
2d ago26¢8.6bought yes
2d ago38¢128bought yes
2d ago38¢113bought yes
2d ago26¢87bought yes
2d ago26¢212bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.