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Annual GDP·closes in 5mo

GDP growth in 2026?

YES means 2.1% to 2.5%

24h volume
3.51
29.1k lifetime
Open interest
17.2k
Spread
13¢
244 × 38 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
32%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 69¢

YES bid / ask
32¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 69¢
Recent buying88% YES · 12% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 14 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2.1
cap
2.5
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 88% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago32¢3.51bought no
1d ago32¢2bought no
2d ago33¢56bought yes
3d ago33¢1.35bought yes
4d ago32¢25bought yes
4d ago26¢1.35bought no
6d ago30¢7.33bought yes
6d ago30¢9.33bought yes
6d ago31¢3.63bought yes
6d ago32¢15bought yes
6d ago31¢6.34bought yes
6d ago27¢19bought no
7d ago32¢1.5bought yes
7d ago32¢30bought yes
9d ago32¢5.85bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.