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Annual GDP·closes in 5mo

GDP growth in 2026?

YES means 2.6% to 3.0%

24h volume
0
24.4k lifetime
Open interest
10.1k
+2,597 over 90d
Spread
5¢
132 × 231 at the touch
24h range
6¢ – 18¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 91¢
24h low 6¢24h high 18¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask50026¢
  • ask49325¢
  • ask2,00023¢
  • ask88419¢
  • ask20018¢
  • ask1015¢
  • ask31414¢
  • ask23114¢
spread5¢mid 11¢
  • bid1329¢
  • bid5008¢
  • bid462¢
  • bid542¢
  • bid482¢
  • bid1,0001¢
  • bid3,0480¢
  • bid2000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 14 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2.6
cap
3
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago14¢2.75bought yes
2d ago13¢11bought yes
2d ago12¢32bought yes
2d ago13¢16bought yes
2d ago13¢191bought yes
2d ago13¢49bought no
2d ago13¢10bought no
3d ago14¢500bought yes
4d ago14¢25bought yes
4d ago14¢50bought yes
6d ago14¢7.24bought yes
7d ago14¢1bought yes
9d ago13¢1bought no
9d ago14¢36bought yes
11d ago13¢20bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.