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Annual GDP·closes in 5mo

GDP growth in 2026?

YES means 3.1% to 3.5%

24h volume
0
41.1k lifetime
Open interest
26.1k
+3,499 over 90d
Spread
3¢
3.11 × 8,465 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 98¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00030¢
  • ask2,45730¢
  • ask3926¢
  • ask5,00012¢
  • ask2549¢
  • ask497¢
  • ask936¢
  • ask8,4655¢
spread3¢mid 4¢
  • bid3.452¢
  • bid142¢
  • bid1481¢
  • bid2681¢
  • bid3831¢
  • bid2000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 14 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
3.1
cap
3.5
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago4¢1bought yes
4d ago4¢5bought yes
9d ago4¢250bought yes
12d ago2¢20bought no
12d ago2¢80bought no
19d ago4¢250bought yes
26d ago1¢217bought yes
26d ago1¢224bought yes
27d ago1¢1bought yes
27d ago1¢62bought no
28d ago1¢47bought yes
28d ago1¢100bought yes
29d ago1¢28bought yes
30d ago1¢100bought yes
30d ago1¢90bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.