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Annual GDP·closes in 5mo

GDP growth in 2026?

YES means 6.1% or Above

24h volume
0
7,477 lifetime
Open interest
7,382
+176 over 30d
Spread
0¢
0 × 1,948 at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 0¢
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 0¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Aug 30

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00099¢
  • ask13121¢
  • ask5,0003¢
  • ask4,9622¢
  • ask9,3261¢
  • ask1,0291¢
  • ask10.0k0¢
  • ask1,9480¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jan 14 · 3:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Feb 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    6
    ticker
    KXGDPYEAR-26-T6.0
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 11 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    27d ago0¢1bought yes
    28d ago0¢47bought yes
    29d ago0¢100bought yes
    29d ago0¢28bought yes
    30d ago0¢100bought yes
    30d ago0¢1bought yes
    1mo ago0¢70bought yes
    1mo ago0¢1,996bought no
    2mo ago0¢4bought yes
    2mo ago0¢1bought no
    2mo ago0¢3bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.