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Annual GDP·closes in 18mo

GDP growth in 2027?

YES means 1.6% to 2.0%

24h volume
0
4,275 lifetime
Open interest
867
Spread
33¢
100 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 89¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask50088¢
  • ask20087¢
  • ask10883¢
  • ask544¢
spread33¢mid 27¢
  • bid10011¢
  • bid5010¢
  • bid2009¢
  • bid5358¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2027 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2027. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2027 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2027 GDP in early 2028. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 8 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2028 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1.6
cap
2
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-27-B1.8
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 77¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago14¢62bought yes
18d ago14¢31bought yes
19d ago8¢1bought no
25d ago14¢1bought yes
26d ago15¢58bought yes
26d ago15¢29bought yes
1mo ago15¢5bought yes
1mo ago14¢62bought yes
1mo ago13¢53bought yes
1mo ago66¢14bought yes
1mo ago12¢64bought yes
1mo ago12¢1bought yes
1mo ago12¢35bought yes
1mo ago10¢19bought yes
1mo ago9¢6bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.