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Annual GDP·closes in 42mo

GDP growth in 2029?

YES means 2.1% to 2.5%

24h volume
0
6,184 lifetime
Open interest
1,851
Spread
23¢
101 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 82¢
Recent buying6% YES · 94% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask80097¢
  • ask5694¢
  • ask2,26793¢
  • ask37092¢
  • ask50045¢
  • ask142¢
  • ask541¢
spread23¢mid 30¢
  • bid10118¢
  • bid7216¢
  • bid10015¢
  • bid829¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2029 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2029. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2029 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2029 GDP in early 2030. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 8 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2030 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2.1
cap
2.5
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 73¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 6% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
26d ago16¢2bought yes
26d ago16¢26bought yes
1mo ago16¢2bought no
2mo ago17¢10bought yes
2mo ago17¢1bought yes
2mo ago17¢1bought yes
2mo ago21¢127bought no
2mo ago21¢127bought no
2mo ago21¢200bought no
2mo ago21¢15bought no
2mo ago21¢15bought no
2mo ago21¢101bought no
2mo ago21¢15bought no
2mo ago21¢15bought no
2mo ago21¢12bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.