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Annual GDP·closes in 54mo

GDP growth in 2030?

YES means 2.6% to 3.0%

24h volume
0
19.3k lifetime
Open interest
1,532
Spread
7¢
5 × 1,005 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
31%

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
69%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 88¢
Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30686¢
  • ask3369¢
  • ask30966¢
  • ask1255¢
  • ask1,19054¢
  • ask59753¢
  • ask4952¢
  • ask1,00519¢
spread7¢mid 15¢
  • bid512¢
  • bid1,00511¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2030 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2030 GDP in early 2031. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 8 · 9:30 PM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2031 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2.6
cap
3
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.8
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9d ago31¢5bought no
10d ago30¢6bought no
10d ago30¢2bought no
10d ago30¢1bought no
10d ago29¢1bought no
10d ago30¢1bought no
10d ago29¢1bought no
10d ago30¢1bought no
10d ago29¢5bought no
11d ago28¢5bought no
20d ago20¢1bought yes
20d ago20¢1bought yes
21d ago20¢2bought yes
21d ago20¢5bought yes
21d ago20¢9bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.