GDP growth in 2031?
YES means 1.1% to 1.5%
- 24h volume
- 0
- 834 lifetime
- Open interest
- 442
- +0 over 7d
- Spread
- 4¢
- 200 × 450 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 10 recent trades
A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 94¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask21856¢
- ask4155¢
- ask84147¢
- ask20014¢
- ask45010¢
- bid2006¢
- bid655¢
- bid2004¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is between 1.1% to 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2031 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2031 GDP in early 2032. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.
- opened
- Jul 27 · 11:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Feb 29, 2032 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Feb 29, 2032 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 1.1
- cap
- 1.5
- ticker
- KXGDPYEAR-31-B1.3
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 10 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 377 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 15 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 25 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 392 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 25 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 0.1 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 0.1 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 0.09 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 0.01 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 10¢ | 0.1 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.