galdor.xyz
Admin
Annual GDP·closes in 66mo

GDP growth in 2031?

YES means 0.0% or Below

24h volume
0
914 lifetime
Open interest
444
+406 over 90d
Spread
4¢
200 × 450 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 91¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJul 28Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20058¢
  • ask5257¢
  • ask83155¢
  • ask20017¢
  • ask45013¢
spread4¢mid 11¢
  • bid2009¢
  • bid658¢
  • bid2007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2031. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2031 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2031 GDP in early 2032. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 27 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 29, 2032 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 29, 2032 · 3:00 PM UTC
cap
0.1
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-31-T0.1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago10¢15bought yes
2mo ago10¢377bought yes
2mo ago10¢25bought yes
2mo ago10¢392bought yes
2mo ago10¢25bought yes
2mo ago10¢0.1bought yes
2mo ago10¢0.1bought yes
2mo ago10¢0.1bought yes
2mo ago10¢0.09bought yes
2mo ago10¢0.01bought yes
2mo ago10¢3bought yes
2mo ago10¢30bought yes
2mo ago8¢0.01bought yes
2mo ago8¢2.99bought yes
2mo ago16¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.