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Annual GDP·closes in 78mo

GDP growth in 2032?

YES means 2.1% to 2.5%

24h volume
0
12.5k lifetime
Open interest
1,306
+0 over 24h
Spread
7¢
11 × 42 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 90¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 3:55 AMSep 20, 10:48 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask61888¢
  • ask4986¢
  • ask18367¢
  • ask90566¢
  • ask46465¢
  • ask24053¢
  • ask25020¢
  • ask4217¢
spread7¢mid 14¢
  • bid1110¢
  • bid2549¢
  • bid583¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2032. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2032 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2032 GDP in early 2033. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2033 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2.1
cap
2.5
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-32-B2.3
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago10¢0.01bought no
4d ago14¢0.41bought yes
1mo ago19¢9.2bought yes
1mo ago20¢0.26bought yes
1mo ago16¢4.22bought yes
2mo ago18¢8bought no
2mo ago18¢15bought no
2mo ago18¢15bought no
2mo ago18¢15bought no
2mo ago18¢200bought no
2mo ago18¢47bought no
2mo ago18¢23bought no
2mo ago13¢19bought no
2mo ago10¢50bought no
2mo ago10¢66bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.