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Annual GDP·closes in 78mo

GDP growth in 2032?

YES means 0.0% or Below

24h volume
0
5,316 lifetime
Open interest
280
+0.41 over 30d
Spread
8¢
0 × 100 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 9¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 100¢
24h low 9¢24h high 9¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20056¢
  • ask5055¢
  • ask50152¢
  • ask2509¢
  • ask1008¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2032. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2032 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2032 GDP in early 2033. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Feb 28, 2033 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Feb 28, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
    cap
    0.1
    ticker
    KXGDPYEAR-32-T0.1
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 86¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago9¢0.41bought yes
    2mo ago9¢150bought no
    2mo ago10¢66bought yes
    2mo ago10¢66bought yes
    2mo ago10¢46bought yes
    2mo ago10¢6.45bought yes
    2mo ago10¢14bought yes
    2mo ago10¢28bought yes
    2mo ago10¢27bought yes
    2mo ago10¢2.12bought yes
    2mo ago10¢26bought yes
    2mo ago9¢15bought no
    2mo ago9¢10bought no
    2mo ago9¢10bought no
    2mo ago9¢10bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.