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Annual GDP·closes in 103mo

GDP growth in 2034?

YES means 2.1% to 2.5%

24h volume
0
2,867 lifetime
Open interest
1,249
+1,249 over 90d
Spread
11¢
0 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 100¢
Recent buying55% YES · 45% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volJul 29Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask24957¢
  • ask4856¢
  • ask44354¢
  • ask25012¢
  • ask10011¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2034. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2034 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2034 GDP in early 2035. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Feb 28, 2035 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Feb 28, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    2.1
    cap
    2.5
    ticker
    KXGDPYEAR-34-B2.3
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 55% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    3d ago10¢0.62bought no
    4d ago10¢13bought no
    11d ago13¢95bought yes
    11d ago13¢4.65bought yes
    11d ago13¢68bought yes
    11d ago12¢4bought yes
    11d ago12¢0.71bought yes
    11d ago12¢0.29bought yes
    16d ago11¢4.1bought yes
    22d ago23¢1bought no
    1mo ago12¢53bought yes
    1mo ago12¢171bought yes
    1mo ago12¢26bought yes
    1mo ago9¢1bought yes
    1mo ago9¢5bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.