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Annual GDP·closes in 103mo

GDP growth in 2034?

YES means 2.6% to 3.0%

24h volume
0
1,661 lifetime
Open interest
1,152
+0 over 7d
Spread
6¢
177 × 50 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 98¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23055¢
  • ask5254¢
  • ask31052¢
  • ask1699¢
  • ask508¢
spread6¢mid 5¢
  • bid1772¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2034. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2034 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2034 GDP in early 2035. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2035 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2035 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2.6
cap
3
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-34-B2.8
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago11¢95bought yes
11d ago11¢4.65bought yes
11d ago11¢68bought yes
11d ago11¢4bought yes
11d ago9¢0.71bought yes
11d ago9¢0.29bought yes
16d ago9¢4.1bought yes
22d ago24¢1bought no
1mo ago12¢53bought yes
1mo ago12¢171bought yes
1mo ago12¢26bought yes
1mo ago9¢1bought yes
1mo ago9¢25bought no
1mo ago9¢2.99bought no
1mo ago9¢15bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.