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Annual GDP·closes in 115mo

GDP growth in 2035?

YES means 1.6% to 2.0%

24h volume
0
14.9k lifetime
Open interest
2,678
−61 over 7d
Spread
6¢
105 × 450 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 90¢

YES bid / ask
10¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 90¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25457¢
  • ask61554¢
  • ask45016¢
spread6¢mid 13¢
  • bid10510¢
  • bid2708¢
  • bid6157¢
  • bid2006¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2035 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2035. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2035 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2035 GDP in early 2036. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2036 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2036 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1.6
cap
2
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.8
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago10¢0.91bought no
6d ago10¢60bought no
16d ago13¢10bought no
19d ago13¢6bought yes
21d ago14¢31bought yes
24d ago14¢6bought yes
26d ago15¢6bought yes
26d ago13¢27bought yes
26d ago13¢5bought yes
26d ago14¢5bought no
26d ago14¢13bought no
27d ago15¢58bought yes
1mo ago14¢50bought yes
1mo ago15¢1bought yes
1mo ago14¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.