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Annual GDP·closes in 115mo

GDP growth in 2035?

YES means 4.1% to 4.5%

24h volume
0
8,573 lifetime
Open interest
2,306
+2,304 over 90d
Spread
1¢
11 × 450 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJul 28Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask195¢
  • ask1,56267¢
  • ask46166¢
  • ask5565¢
  • ask2008¢
  • ask4504¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid113¢
  • bid6762¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2035 is between 4.1% to 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2035. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2035 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2035 GDP in early 2036. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Feb 28, 2036 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 28, 2036 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
4.1
cap
4.5
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-35-B4.3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago6¢25bought yes
1mo ago6¢5bought yes
1mo ago6¢121bought yes
1mo ago6¢25bought yes
1mo ago6¢109bought yes
1mo ago6¢20bought yes
1mo ago6¢25bought yes
1mo ago6¢75bought yes
1mo ago6¢15bought yes
1mo ago6¢400bought yes
1mo ago6¢10bought yes
1mo ago6¢66bought yes
2mo ago6¢27bought yes
2mo ago6¢65bought yes
2mo ago6¢0.72bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.