galdor.xyz
Admin
Annual GDP·closes in 137mo

GDP growth in 2036?

YES means 2.1% to 2.5%

24h volume
0
11.3k lifetime
Open interest
1,399
+1,393 over 90d
Spread
3¢
105 × 450 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 92¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJul 28Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask27958¢
  • ask5557¢
  • ask85756¢
  • ask20015¢
  • ask45011¢
spread3¢mid 10¢
  • bid1058¢
  • bid3387¢
  • bid7986¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid832¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2036 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2036 GDP in early 2037. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2037 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2037 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2.1
cap
2.5
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-36-B2.3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 83¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago10¢0.02bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
1mo ago15¢21bought yes
1mo ago14¢66bought yes
1mo ago15¢62bought yes
1mo ago15¢5bought yes
1mo ago15¢66bought yes
1mo ago15¢12bought yes
1mo ago14¢11bought yes
1mo ago14¢7bought yes
1mo ago14¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.