GDP growth in 2036?
YES means 3.6% to 4.0%
- 24h volume
- 0
- 12.1k lifetime
- Open interest
- 985
- Spread
- 1¢
- 810 × 250 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 97¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2036 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2036 GDP in early 2037. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
- opened
- Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
- closes
- Dec 31, 2037 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Dec 31, 2037 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 3.6
- cap
- 4
- ticker
- KXGDPYEAR-36-B3.8
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 83¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17d ago | 4¢ | 9 | bought yes |
| 24d ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 24d ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 24d ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 24d ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 21 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 66 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 62 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 22 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 61 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 11 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 7 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 2 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 5¢ | 1 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.