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Annual GDP·closes in 137mo

GDP growth in 2036?

YES means 0.0% or Below

24h volume
0
8,715 lifetime
Open interest
430
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
205 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 91¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2036 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2036 GDP in early 2037. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2037 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2037 · 3:00 PM UTC
cap
0.1
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-36-T0.1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 83¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago10¢4bought no
18d ago11¢1bought yes
18d ago11¢3bought yes
18d ago11¢15bought yes
19d ago10¢5bought yes
20d ago9¢20bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
24d ago8¢1bought no
1mo ago13¢21bought yes
1mo ago14¢59bought yes
1mo ago14¢7bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.