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Annual GDP·closes in 137mo

GDP growth in 2036?

YES means 6.1% or Above

24h volume
0
14.2k lifetime
Open interest
609
Spread
2¢
543 × 450 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 97¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask299¢
  • ask3798¢
  • ask5197¢
  • ask1,17155¢
  • ask1225¢
  • ask2009¢
  • ask6.728¢
  • ask4505¢
spread2¢mid 4¢
  • bid5433¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2036 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2036 GDP in early 2037. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2037 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2037 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
6
ticker
KXGDPYEAR-36-T6.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 83¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
24d ago5¢1bought no
24d ago5¢1bought no
24d ago5¢1bought no
24d ago5¢1bought no
27d ago6¢26bought yes
1mo ago7¢21bought yes
1mo ago7¢66bought yes
1mo ago7¢62bought yes
1mo ago7¢22bought yes
1mo ago7¢61bought yes
1mo ago7¢11bought yes
1mo ago7¢7bought yes
1mo ago7¢1bought yes
1mo ago7¢2bought yes
1mo ago7¢49bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.