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Gold Hourly·closes in 43m

Will the gold close price be above 4125.99 USD/ounce on November 04, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET?

YES means Above $4125.99

24h volume
2,258
2,299 lifetime
Open interest
2,257
Spread
3¢
50 × 2,051 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
91%

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
9%

costs 19¢

YES bid / ask
81¢ / 84¢
NO bid / ask
16¢ / 19¢
Recent buying11% YES · 89% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask399¢
  • ask11493¢
  • ask11488¢
  • ask2986¢
  • ask2,05082¢
spread1¢mid 82¢
  • bid5081¢
  • bid5079¢
  • bid2,05178¢
  • bid20072¢
  • bid2068¢
  • bid3063¢
  • bid3260¢
  • bid1648¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on November 04, 2026 at 11:00 PM EST is above 4125.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.

The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market. NA

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 5 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 5 · 4:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 5 · 4:00 AM UTC
floor
4125.99
ticker
KXGOLDH-26NOV0423-T4125.99
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 11% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago91¢30bought yes
3m ago91¢11bought yes
8m ago90¢2,050bought no
8m ago90¢1bought no
11m ago77¢1bought yes
11m ago77¢50bought yes
11m ago79¢13bought yes
12m ago71¢50bought yes
12m ago73¢16bought yes
12m ago69¢50bought yes
12m ago70¢23bought yes
12m ago69¢1bought yes
12m ago64¢1.32bought no
22m ago70¢3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.