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Government budget cuts·closes in 31mo

Will government spending decrease by $500 billion before 2028?

YES means At least 500 billion

24h volume
0
12.1k lifetime
Open interest
2,482
+404 over 90d
Spread
1¢
1 × 61 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 94¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4522¢
  • ask2519¢
  • ask1318¢
  • ask2515¢
  • ask1514¢
  • ask2009¢
  • ask47¢
  • ask617¢
spread1¢mid 7¢
  • bid16¢
  • bid15¢
  • bid14¢
  • bid13¢
  • bid12¢
  • bid1502¢
  • bid1402¢
  • bid2011¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $500 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 13, 2024 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
500
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-28-500
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago7¢34bought yes
8d ago7¢50bought yes
10d ago4¢1bought no
10d ago3¢1bought no
10d ago2¢1bought no
10d ago5¢1bought no
10d ago6¢0.82bought no
10d ago2¢0.32bought no
10d ago7¢3.18bought yes
10d ago6¢3bought no
10d ago6¢0.18bought no
17d ago7¢64bought yes
17d ago7¢84bought yes
19d ago6¢1bought no
19d ago7¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.