Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?
YES means Yes
A continuing resolution is priced as done. The 'how many shutdowns in 2026' market still sits at two (64¢), so the fight is expected to return after the election.
- 24h volume
- 0
- 939.6k lifetime
- Open interest
- 463.1k
- Spread
- 100¢
- 0 × 0 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
This market is closed and resolved NO. Prices shown are the last ones traded.
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes: OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
- opened
- Jun 9 · 8:30 PM UTC
- closes
- Oct 1 · 1:36 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Oct 2 · 2:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.