How much will Greenland be acquired for?·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. pay between $900 billion and $1199 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?

YES means $900 billion to $1199 billion

24h volume
0
128.9k lifetime
Open interest
64.6k
Spread
3 × 6,974 at the touch
24h range
43 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 99¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4,98898¢
  • ask110¢
  • ask1,000
  • ask600
  • ask30
  • ask219
  • ask574
  • ask6,974
spreadmid
  • bid3
  • bid41
  • bid12
  • bid1,000
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $900 billion and $1199 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 17 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 22, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 22, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
900
cap
1199
ticker
KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-1049B
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 111¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 43 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago100bought no
2d ago500bought yes
2d ago600bought yes
10d ago1bought yes
15d ago147bought no
15d ago1,000bought no
15d ago925bought no
16d ago720bought yes
17d ago109bought yes
17d ago41bought yes
19d ago5bought no
26d ago222bought no
26d ago70bought no
26d ago70bought no
27d ago3.9bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.