Will the U.S. pay at least $1200 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?
YES means $1.2 trillion or more
- 24h volume
- 970
- 92.6k lifetime
- Open interest
- 58.0k
- +1,659 over 90d
- Spread
- 1¢
- 1,232 × 2,182 at the touch
- 24h range
- 1¢ – 2¢
A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 100¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is at_least $1200 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.
- opened
- Jan 17 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 22, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 22, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 1200
- ticker
- KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-1200B
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.