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How much will Greenland be acquired for?·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. pay between $600 billion and $899 billion for Greenland during Trump's term?

YES means $600 billion to $899 billion

24h volume
268
196.4k lifetime
Open interest
70.7k
Spread
4¢
640 × 799 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 5¢
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 99¢
24h low 2¢24h high 5¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask19621¢
  • ask1715¢
  • ask13012¢
  • ask111¢
  • ask110¢
  • ask1,0006¢
  • ask2506¢
  • ask7995¢
spread4¢mid 3¢
  • bid6401¢
  • bid860¢
  • bid5500¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $600 billion and $899 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 17 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 22, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 22, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
600
cap
899
ticker
KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-749B
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.