galdor.xyz
Admin
How much will Greenland be acquired for?·closes in 28mo

Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term?

YES means $0 / No Acquisition

24h volume
3,544
850.7k lifetime
Open interest
189.0k
+1,911 over 30d
Spread
1¢
3.8 × 102 at the touch
24h range
89¢ – 92¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
89%

A YES contract costs 90¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
11%

costs 11¢

YES bid / ask
89¢ / 90¢
NO bid / ask
10¢ / 11¢
24h low 89¢24h high 92¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
75¢80¢85¢90¢95¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55593¢
  • ask4093¢
  • ask0.5993¢
  • ask62092¢
  • ask5992¢
  • ask2192¢
  • ask4192¢
  • ask10290¢
spread1¢mid 90¢
  • bid3.889¢
  • bid1,02788¢
  • bid1,77787¢
  • bid1,91186¢
  • bid2,61185¢
  • bid1,95584¢
  • bid2,21883¢
  • bid16082¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 17 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 22, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 22, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
cap
1
ticker
KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-NOACQ
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 111¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago89¢1.2bought no
3h ago90¢10bought yes
5h ago89¢5.16bought no
5h ago89¢55bought no
5h ago89¢33bought no
5h ago89¢3.36bought no
5h ago89¢10bought no
5h ago89¢5bought no
5h ago89¢9.6bought no
5h ago89¢0.92bought no
5h ago89¢1.69bought no
5h ago89¢55bought no
5h ago89¢1.24bought no
5h ago89¢9bought no
5h ago89¢0.69bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.