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Greenland acquisition·closes in 28mo

Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?

YES means Before January 21, 2029

24h volume
3,917
2.89M lifetime
Open interest
360.4k
Spread
4¢
83 × 27 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%+5

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 80¢

YES bid / ask
20¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 80¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1.3631¢
  • ask10030¢
  • ask10029¢
  • ask10028¢
  • ask1,10027¢
  • ask8526¢
  • ask10025¢
  • ask2724¢
spread4¢mid 22¢
  • bid8320¢
  • bid1,00019¢
  • bid32916¢
  • bid9,76715¢
  • bid2,22914¢
  • bid24313¢
  • bid31512¢
  • bid70011¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 9, 2025 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXGREENTERRITORY-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago21¢5bought yes
2h ago20¢1bought yes
2h ago21¢6.11bought yes
2h ago21¢3.76bought yes
2h ago22¢810bought yes
2h ago21¢12bought yes
2h ago21¢62bought yes
2h ago22¢100bought yes
2h ago21¢3bought yes
2h ago16¢5bought yes
2h ago20¢2bought yes
2h ago15¢39bought no
2h ago15¢2bought no
4h ago16¢25bought no
4h ago16¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.