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H1B cap lifted·closes in 28mo

Will Trump expand high-skill immigration?

YES means Before 2029

24h volume
15
123.4k lifetime
Open interest
15.9k
−12 over 7d
Spread
8¢
10 × 205 at the touch
24h range
23¢ – 23¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask
19¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 81¢
24h low 23¢24h high 23¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5036¢
  • ask5035¢
  • ask3633¢
  • ask232¢
  • ask50031¢
  • ask30830¢
  • ask8229¢
  • ask20527¢
spread8¢mid 23¢
  • bid1019¢
  • bid20018¢
  • bid15615¢
  • bid10014¢
  • bid549¢
  • bid5509¢
  • bid1,5009¢
  • bid507¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the number of allowable H-1B visas as of Issuance (as of certification, the cap is 65,000 visas and an additional 20,000 for advanced degrees) has been increased after Issuance and before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Increasing the current cap (or eliminating it entirely) or exemption for advanced degrees, or creating new exemptions, would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The Payout Criterion also encompasses creating a third kind of H-1B visa other than the normal visa and the exemption for advanced degrees.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 19, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXH1B-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump expand the H-1B program?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago23¢5bought no
5h ago23¢2bought no
12h ago23¢3bought yes
12h ago23¢5bought yes
3d ago23¢2bought yes
6d ago21¢6.16bought no
8d ago15¢1bought no
8d ago23¢200bought no
8d ago15¢158bought no
8d ago22¢5bought no
8d ago21¢28bought no
8d ago22¢5bought no
19d ago22¢7bought no
23d ago27¢3bought no
23d ago27¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.