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How many prime ministers will the UK have?·closes in 28mo

Exactly people

YES means 4

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 30d
Spread
94¢
50 × 766 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 99¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask3598¢
  • ask76695¢
spread94¢mid 48¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.

"Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official capacity, whether by appointment, election, succession, or acting designation, and performed the duties of that role for any length of time during the time period. If an individual serves multiple non-consecutive terms in the role, they will count once for each term (allowing an individual to be counted multiple times). If an individual holds the role temporarily in an "acting" or "interim" capacity for any amount of time, or is formally designated as such, they count as serving in the role. Dual officeholders count once per person even if holding multiple titles simultaneously. If an individual is appointed but never sworn in, or withdraws before assuming office, they do not count as serving. Vacancies do not count as individuals serving. Posthumous designations or honorary titles do not count.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 6:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
4
cap
4
ticker
KXHOWMANYUKPM-29JAN-UKPM-4
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 5¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.