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Number of hurricanes·closes in 27d

Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

YES means Above 4

A normal season is seven. The market is saying four or fewer, with 'more than 6' at 6¢. The Eastern Pacific has been the active basin instead.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
1,309
29.8k lifetime
Open interest
15.0k
+1,154 over 7d
Spread
1¢
2,141 × 4,808 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 12¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−11

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 12¢
Recent buying10% YES · 90% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volOct 29Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7014¢
  • ask17112¢
  • ask9711¢
  • ask5310¢
  • ask259¢
  • ask4956¢
  • ask235¢
  • ask4,8082¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid2,1411¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 1 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 2 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T4
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 10% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago1¢1.34bought no
6h ago2¢0.01bought yes
9h ago2¢5bought yes
10h ago2¢2.15bought no
10h ago2¢200bought no
11h ago2¢13bought no
11h ago2¢1.7bought no
11h ago2¢0.88bought no
11h ago2¢6.24bought no
11h ago2¢1.67bought no
11h ago2¢126bought no
11h ago2¢73bought no
14h ago7¢8.31bought no
14h ago7¢13bought no
14h ago7¢6.15bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.