Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
YES means Above 4
A normal season is seven. The market is saying four or fewer, with 'more than 6' at 6¢. The Eastern Pacific has been the active basin instead.
- 24h volume
- 1,309
- 29.8k lifetime
- Open interest
- 15.0k
- Spread
- 1¢
- 2,141 × 4,808 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 99¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask7014¢
- ask17112¢
- ask9711¢
- ask5310¢
- ask259¢
- ask4956¢
- ask235¢
- ask4,8082¢
- bid2,1411¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.
- opened
- Apr 1 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Dec 2 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 4
- ticker
- KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T4
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.