galdor.xyz
Admin
Number of major hurricanes·closes in 27d

Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

YES means Above 3

24h volume
3,736
27.2k lifetime
Open interest
8,737
Spread
1¢
0 × 6,310 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−2

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20011¢
  • ask3010¢
  • ask107¢
  • ask1936¢
  • ask2004¢
  • ask4553¢
  • ask3,5352¢
  • ask6,3101¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 3 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 1 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 2 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    3
    ticker
    KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T3
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    5h ago1¢93bought yes
    6h ago1¢935bought yes
    6h ago1¢0.01bought yes
    6h ago1¢15bought yes
    10h ago1¢200bought no
    10h ago1¢400bought no
    10h ago1¢1,445bought no
    10h ago1¢8bought no
    10h ago1¢75bought no
    10h ago1¢127bought no
    10h ago1¢389bought no
    14h ago2¢3bought no
    15h ago2¢0.01bought no
    22h ago1¢46bought no
    1d ago3¢35bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.